Yeah, I've rebutted these arguments before. Rather than go through all that again, I'll point out that his main assumption is that three years was a fair penalty and any attempt to reduce it is unfair. I would argue that it was a crazy overreaction for a kid who had just turned 19, had only committed one infraction, and confessed to it without trying to throw anyone under the bus. Even 1 1/2 years is too much IMO, but it isn't going to get better than that at this point.
And of course, she won't be able to start at full speed in September, 2025, so it'll probably be more like four or five years in the end.