With all due respect, how can you ever handicap any golf tournaments?
Scoring average aside, weekly results are determined by who putts the best and who has the most luck; not something that can be analyzed scientifically.
With all due respect, how can you ever handicap any golf tournaments?
Scoring average aside, weekly results are determined by who putts the best and who has the most luck; not something that can be analyzed scientifically.
You think a tournament is decided by who has the most luck?
You typically have to putt well to win, but you certainly don't have to be the best putter in the field that week to win. Last week Mi Jung Hur had the best putting stats, yet she finished 21st. The reason why she didn't contend was because of her driving accuracy (40%) and GIR rate (63%).
I think golf is the best sport to bet on. Odds are huge. Favourites don't normally win. Different golf courses suit different players. For example, this week it's a fairly short course where the shorter hitters have a chance and par-4 scoring average is key.
Compare that to somewhere like the season opener at the Bahamas - a big par-73 that suits huge hitters and players that can take advantage of the par-5s. A short hitter with poor par-5 scoring wouldn't have a chance of winning. No surprise then to see Lincicome win, who's one of the biggest hitters on tour and consistently finishes well at that tournament.
Take this week, Ariya is the favourite at 7/1 yet she has course form of 44-MC-64. She's never contended here so I personally think she's a vulnerable favourite.
The winner each week is not the best putter, it's the best putter among the best ballstrikers. A player could shoot even par with 18 putts per round after missing all 18 greens. Great putter/short game, but lousy ballstriking. This past week, So Yeon's ballstriking was superb, with 62% fairways hit, 274 yards off the tee, and 83% greens hit.
Actually, right now So Yeon driving is the only thing she needs to work on. Really not all that bad, but inferior to the other parts of her game. Following her, when she hit the fairway I knew she would have a good chance for birdie.
So Yeon hits a draw off the tee, and Blythefield CC has a number of holes that require a fade off the tee. I'm not surprised that she hit only 62% of her fairways. She was just off the fairway in the left rough on a number of holes.
Interesting. I assume there is no perfect system for handicapping since there are so many ways to win. Just have to figure out the best odds among all factors that affect winning and build a model from that, knowing the unusual can happen and defy the numbers.
Just looking at my girl Ariya. I've seen her win being locked in, sticking approach shots and tapping in short putts. I've also seen her wild as a bronco, but win with clutch chipping from off the green and zip code spanning birdie putts.
Last Edit: Jun 21, 2018 0:14:56 GMT by bangkokbobby
So Yeon hits a draw off the tee, and Blythefield CC has a number of holes that require a fade off the tee. I'm not surprised that she hit only 62% of her fairways. She was just off the fairway in the left rough on a number of holes.
I know she does hit a draw, which enable her to hit more par fives in two. So I expected her to miss a few more fairways, because her drives are longer. Yes it did happen a few times, that her drive bounced a yard or two into the rough. However some of her misses were opposite of the best spot to miss a drive. That what I meant about working on her drives. But it was just a handful, so it wasn't all that bad.